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Sunday, October 08, 2023

Can trade deals engineered by USA & China solve the West Asian crisis?


 
The October 8 show of Fareed Zakaria on CNN covered the unprecedented attack on Israel by Hamas and Israel's subsequent retaliation on Gaza . CNN provided the Palestinian view from the West Bank in its conversation with  Palestinian National Initiative leader, Mustafa Barghuoti (not connected to Hamas's offensive) in southern Israel. Mustafa Barghoti says, Hamas's attack on Israel was a response to the Israeli occupation, and that Palestinians, like Ukrainians, are fighting for their freedom.
Aren't they fighting for commercial freedom as well? 
This crisis is likely to have ramifications for the entire West Asia consisting of Turkey, Syria, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen. The state of Israel was established in 1948. The  commercial interests paved the way for its establishment. UN had accepted a partition plan for the division of the region into Arab and Jewish parts. Arab states had rejected it because it undermined their commercial interests. 
The Israelite/Jewish culture of the Fertile Crescent has a profound impact on the rest of Western Asia. It gave birth to the three Abrahamic faiths. 
The Jewish origins of Christianity and cultural contributions from both Jews and Arabs in Europe has left a lasting impact on Western culture. Significantly, Western culture cannot be imagined independent of the West Asian culture. The other indigenous West Asian religions include Zoroastrianism, Yazidism, Alevism, Druze and the Bahá'í Faith. Notably, almost 93% of Western Asia's inhabitants are Muslims and is characterized by political Islamic, with the exception of Israel, a Jewish state. 
In this backdrop, Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader says, “All the agreements of normalisation that you (Arab states) signed with (Israel) will not end this conflict,” referring to the larger Israel-Palestine conflict. The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which has also attacked Israeli forces, said that the action was a “decisive response to Israel’s continued occupation and a message to those seeking normalisation with Israel”. The word "normalisation" is an euphemism for commercial relationship. 
In recent years, Hamas became victorious in the democratic elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council of the limited Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
The Abrahamic Accords engineered by USA culminated in the UAE becoming the third Arab country, after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, to agree to formally normalise its relationship with Israel. The UAE-Israel trade deal was signed in May 2022. Meanwhile, China has engineered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran this year. 

Naftali Bennett, former Israeli Prime Minister spoke about the Hamas's attack. He said,"I have to admit that we were surprised. At the end of the day, intelligence can go only so far." This "surprise" does not sound convincing. It is apprehended that surprise is being feigned. This seems to be the work of some invisible commercial czars, the donors of the ruling parties in Israel and Palestine. In the era of anonymous donors this possibility deserves rigorous scrutiny. 

This military failure implies the glaring failure of 2011 born digital Iron Dome system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, a state-owned arms company, with help from USA. It protects populations and assets by neutralising short-range aerial threats by intercepting targets in the airspace and by destroying the missiles in the air. 

One of the most important questions which occupies world's attention is: Why didn’t Israel’s digital border security stop the attack which imperils 75 years of its continued existence? It is apparent that digital guarantees and cyber security assurances are no guarantees.

The fact remains that official and unofficial military forces including the cyber warriors end up becoming soldiers as cannon fodders in service of commercial interests of nations. 

The emergence of trade deals between various West Asian States, Israel and Iran doctored by USA and China is likely to pave way for the triumph of commerce over politics. 
If the commercial interest of Palestinians can be factored in these deals, no one can prevent the emergence of a peaceful West Asia. 



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